MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...SW NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 311733Z - 311900Z
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY NEAR THE
   KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WEST OF MCCOOK.  THIS APPEARS GENERALLY IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  BENEATH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...WITH MOST UNSTABLE
   CAPE NOW IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH BELT OF
   40+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW NOW NOSING EAST OF THE COLORADO FRONT
   RANGE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  AND
   ...AS ONGOING STORMS SPREAD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS INTO PARTS OF
   EASTERN COLORADO IS EXPECTED THROUGH 20-21Z.  LIKELY INITIALLY
   ELEVATED IN NATURE...FURTHER MOISTENING AND HEATING OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER THROUGH PEAK HEATING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE
   THREAT.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   MAY BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH SLOWLY EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/31/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   40050208 40450053 41189939 40699770 39659774 37760007
   37220258 37910359 39240263 39630252