MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0922
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 300053Z - 300300Z
   
   TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS HILL COUNTRY -- W OF TPL/AUS AREA --
   MAY POSE BRIEF SVR THREAT WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  BRIEF
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALSO.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
   NWWD TOWARD ABI AREA.  THREAT APPEARS TOO SHORT-LIVED AND CONFINED
   IN AREA FOR WW.  IN ADDITION...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
   SLOW-MOVING...ENHANCING THREAT FROM POSSIBLE 2-3 INCH/HOUR RAIN
   RATES.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- PRODUCED BY MCS NOW
   MOVING ESEWD ACROSS PINEY WOODS OF E TX -- EXTENDS FROM NEAR CLL
   NWWD ACROSS LAMPASAS AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. THAT PORTION OF BOUNDARY W
   OF I-35 HAS STALLED AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR REMAINDER
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY
   IS FAVORABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO 70
   F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES 2500-3500 J/KG.  MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
   PROFILES WILL REMAIN ALONG AND N OF BOUNDARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS.  ELY SFC COMPONENT ENLARGES LOW LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS -- CONTRIBUTING TO 0-3 KM SRH 150-350 J/KG.  30-35 KT WNW
   FLOW INVOF 500 MB LAYER ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR...WITH 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  STORMS OVER HILL
   COUNTRY MAY EXHIBIT SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGIES BEFORE
   BECOMING OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND PERHAPS MERGING WITH OTHER CONVECTION
   INTO SMALL CLUSTER.  ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS FARTHER NW SHOULD BE
   SOMEWHAT MORE DISCRETE...BUT POTENTIAL IS MORE CONDITIONAL WITH WWD
   EXTENT BECAUSE OF STRONGER CAPPING.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
   
   30239771 30539857 31379912 32250023 32419976 31529786
   31049705