MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN MT.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 280104Z - 280300Z
   
   BROAD AREA OF PRECIP FCST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND LIFTING NEWD
   ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z.  WITHIN THIS
   ACTIVITY...PRIND EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY INTENSIFY DURING NEXT FEW
   HOURS...ESPECIALLY INVOF SRN/SERN EDGE OF PRECIP PLUME WHERE AT
   LEAST MRGLLY UNSTABLE INFLOW IS RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED.  HIGH BASED
   TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM NERN WY
   WNWWD TOWARD SFC LOW INVOF LVM...INTERSECTING OUTFLOW-REINFORCED
   COLD FRONTAL SURGE THERE.  LATTER BOUNDARY -- ARCHING FROM SERN AB
   SEWD ACROSS LWT REGION THEN SWWD ACROSS BZN AREA AND CENTRAL ID --
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER CENTRAL MT.  EXPECT LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT ALOFT TO INCREASE AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING
   EWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
   BUOYANCY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST
   ADVECTION ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN MT.  OBSERVED GGW/TFX/RIW RAOBS
   APPEAR UNREPRESENTATIVE OF NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
   AIR MASS BETWEEN THEM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO COMPRISE INFLOW REGION OF
   CONVECTION ACROSS REGION.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPES
   500-1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS LOW 50S F COMMON E OF
   MOUNTAINS.  KINEMATIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR POTENTIAL
   WITH 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
   MT...STRONG ELY COMPONENT AT SFC N OF QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STORM-RELATIVE
   INFLOW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/28/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
   
   45811220 46371198 47150853 47800810 47800670 46560584
   45580662 45190770 44991104