MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0897
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA...SERN MN...WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 261940Z - 262115Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/HIGH WINDS APPEARS TO BE
   INCREASING FROM NERN IS INTO PARTS OF ERN MN AND WRN/NWRN WI THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY WITHIN THE HOUR.
   
   TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT
   MOVING INTO ERN MN/WRN WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DESPITE
   CURRENTLY LIMITED INSTABILITY...SURFACE WARM AXIS HAS DEVELOPED IN
   THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS JUST AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. THIS WARM
   PLUME...WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WAS IN THE PROCESS OF
   OVERSPREADING LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS FROM SERN MN TO THE MN/WI BORDER
   AREA. FORCING/LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN DPVA REGION OF
   ASSOCIATED COMPACT MID/UPPER IMPULSE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR
   ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
   SHEAR PROFILES AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION APPEAR VERY
   SUPPORTIVE FOR CELL/UPDRAFT ROTATION AND MAY COMPENSATE FOR MORE
   LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AND RESULT IN PERSISTENT STORMS WITH
   HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING FROM
   NERN IA ACROSS WRN WI ATTM AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED
   SOON FOR THESE AREAS SHORTLY.
   
   FARTHER NORTH...A FEW STRONG CELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
   MOVES TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE STRONG
   DYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS WILL LEND SUPPORT TO SOME STORMS THIS
   AREA...WEAKER INSTABILITY MAY PRECLUDE A WATCH THIS FAR NORTH.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
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