MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0869
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0433 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...FAR NERN NM...FAR NWRN TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 232133Z - 240000Z
   
   SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLES AND
   PORTIONS OF SERN CO/FAR SWRN KS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER THE NCENTRAL/NERN TX
   AND ERN OK PANHANDLES WAS MOVING WNWWD AROUND 15 KTS AS MODEST
   PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR FURTHER WEST. EXTRAPOLATING THIS CURRENT MOTION
   TAKES MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J/KG/ OF MLCAPE INTO THE FAR
   NWRN TX PANHANDLE AND THE WRN OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS BETWEEN 00-02Z.
   AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL VERTICAL MOTION
   /AHEAD OF A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX OVER NCENTRAL NM/SCENTRAL CO/
   MOVES STEADILY EWD ACROSS SRN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EXPECT AN
   EXPANSION OF CONVECTION INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO/NERN NM.
   INITIALLY THIS ACTIVITY MOVING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS LIKELY
   TO BE HIGH BASED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/.
   BUT GIVEN VERY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...A CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS MAY ENSUE. THESE STORMS WOULD BE
   ENCOUNTERING MODERATE LOW LEVEL S-R INFLOW /ESELY AT 20-30 KTS/ WITH
   DMGG WIND THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT /GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE
   CONVECTION INITIALLY/. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT
   WNWWD...THIS CONVECTION /OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY/ WOULD SUPPORT LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND A GREATER TORNADO
   POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR NWRN TX/WRN OK PANHANDLES AND FAR SWRN KS
   AFTER 00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 05/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   38280113 38480243 38150331 37770398 37240410 36370414
   35960336 35850215 36280214 36900202 36880151 37650145
   37630102