MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 192001Z - 192100Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS WRN TX WITH THE MAIN THREAT
   LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS HEATING CONTINUES OVER SWRN TX WITH DEWPOINTS
   HOLDING IN THE MID 50S. GIVEN RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. SELY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW...ALBEIT WEAK...IS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VECTOR MAGNITUDES ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   A COUPLE LONG LIVED SEVERE CELLS...POSSIBLY WITH SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS. RADAR AS OF 20Z ALREADY SHOWED SEVERE CELLS JUST
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE W OF HUDSPETH COUNTY. MEAN SELY STORM MOTIONS
   COULD KEEP THESE STORMS W OF THE BORDER...HOWEVER...ONLY SLIGHT EWD
   UPDRAFT PROPAGATION WOULD BRING THESE CELLS INTO THE U.S. OTHER
   CELLS MAY BECOME SEVERE NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/19/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ...
   
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