MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0832
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CDT FRI MAY 18 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 182320Z - 190045Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
   LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 279 THIS EVENING. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   A STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
   PENNINGTON AND RED LAKE COUNTIES IN NWRN MN...PERHAPS AS INITIALLY
   ELEVATED...WEAKER CONVECTION FINALLY BECAME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER
   AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.  RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT
   THIS STORM IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
   INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL ND INTO N-CNTRL SD WHERE
   MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1000-1500 J/KG.  GIVEN THAT THIS STORM IS
   MOVING SEWD AWAY FROM THIS STRONGER INSTABILITY...THERE IS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS STORM WILL MAINTAIN IT/S INTENSITY.
   
   REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER NETWORK AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
   THAT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ATTENDANT TO 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE
   MAINTAINED AT LEAST THROUGH 19/06Z OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH
   COULD SUPPORT SOME EWD DEVELOPMENT TO THIS INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
   TIME.  THIS COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /30-35 KT
   PER GRAND FORKS VWP/ INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT TO DEVELOP E OF CURRENT WW THIS EVENING.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/18/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
   
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