MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0535 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 152235Z - 152330Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND.  SEVERE STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA.
   
   A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT HAS EVOLVED OVER CENTRAL MA AND IS MOVING TO
   THE ESE AT ROUGHLY 50 KT.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS FOR THE AREA NEAR
   AND IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION SHOWS A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED
   LAYER AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  GIVEN THE 40-50 KT WNWLY FLOW
   AROUND 3 KM AGL AND THE STEEP L0W-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SOME OF THE
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.  HOWEVER...THE
   LEADING CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER THE COOLER MARINE AIR MASS BY 23Z
   WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION.  OTHER ISOLATED
   STORMS COULD FORM UPSTREAM FROM SRN NY INTO WRN MA AND CT...AND THIS
   CONVECTION COULD ALSO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.  THIS AREA WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH...THOUGH THE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
   MARGINAL ATTM.
   
   ..THOMPSON.. 05/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...BGM...
   
   42197109 41967133 41787173 41747259 41907361 42047477
   42047531 42197577 42387609 42857619 43217580 43087497
   42897378 42827231 42737126 42637103