MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NH...VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 151827Z - 152000Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   ESPECIALLY IF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ACROSS NY...VT OR NH.
   LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A
   WW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
   THIS EVENING.
   
   18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER SWRN ONTARIO WITH A 1005 MB
   LOW OVER ERN ONTARIO. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW...WINDS ARE
   VEERED AND A THERMAL AXIS EXISTS ACROSS WRN NY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN
   THE MID 80S F. ALTHOUGH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
   THERMAL AXIS...SFC-BASED INITIATION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON IN SRN NY WHERE A BAND OF EXPANDING CUMULUS IS EVIDENT ON
   VISIBLE IMAGERY. INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST IN
   THE HUDSON RIVER...MOHAWK AND CONNECTICUT VALLEYS WHERE SFC TEMPS
   WILL BE LOCALLY WARMER AS WELL. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
   SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO A 60
   KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SWRN ONTARIO. IF STORMS
   INITIATE...THE SHEAR COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
   THREAT ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS LOCALLY ENHANCED. LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR
   ORGANIZED LINES THAT DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   42207368 42117603 42057722 42127856 43067858 43367735
   43367622 43477463 43357250 42317224