MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL LWR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 150802Z - 150930Z
   
   STRONG TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY NORTH OF THE KGRR VCNTY.  IT IS
   DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE MECHANICS OF THE INITIATION GIVEN THE
   SEEMINGLY LACK OF OVERALL UPR SUPPORT AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
   BOUNDARIES.  VWP FROM KGRR DOES SHOW A STRONG WSWLY LLJ OF 65 KTS IN
   THE 0.5-1KM LAYER... RESULTING IN MODEST WARM ADVECTION...SO
   THINKING IS THAT MORE STORMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL
   LWR MI THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
   AS COOLER OUTFLOW WINDS SPREAD SEWD FROM NWRN LWR MI.
   
   LOW AND MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WOULD SUGGEST THAT A STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT WAS BEING ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF THE ELONGATED FRONT N
   OF THE REGION.  THUS...UPDRAFTS WILL TEND TO BE STRONG AND COULD
   ORGANIZE INTO PULSE-TYPE SVR CLUSTERS WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
   HIGH WINDS.  MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE INFLUX IS NOT OPTIMUM FOR
   WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS...HOWEVER...WITH UPSTREAM SOURCE REGION PWAT
   VALUES AROUND AN INCH.  NONETHELESS...A SUSTAINED STORM MAY YIELD
   SPORADIC SVR THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
   CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. 
   
   IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND/OR INCREASE IN COVERAGE...A
   WW MAY BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
   
   43568604 44158509 44358422 44158324 43758308 43338376
   43118496 42958587