MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 140248Z - 140415Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
   EVENING...BUT A NEW WW MAY STILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   WESTERN DAKOTAS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.
   
   MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING...ASSOCIATED
   WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE NORTH DAKOTA/
   CANADIAN BORDER AREA.  AND...INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
   IS VERY LARGE BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   DAKOTAS.  AS A RESULT...SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
   EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE EASTERN MONTANA
   BORDER DURING THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURSTS...AND
   CONTINUING DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ALONG EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE
   COLD POOL.  THIS COULD REACH THE MINOT AFB...BISMARCK ND AND
   MOBRIDGE SD AREAS BY AROUND 06Z...BEFORE THREAT WANES AS CONVECTION
   DISSIPATES.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   46020400 46370401 48010399 48730241 48120092 46110104
   45340153 45180288 45370347 45570390 45650395