MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0746
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0619 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/BIG BEND AREA OF TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 072319Z - 080045Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHWEST TX AND THE BIG BEND/TRANSPECOS REGION. A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   SEVERE STORM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED/SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
   U.S./MEXICAN BORDER INTO SOUTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY...AND SHORT TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
   BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
   TX. PER REGIONAL PROFILER/WSR-88D VWP DATA...1-2 KM DEEP EASTERLY
   FLOW CONTINUES TO YIELD INCREASING BOUNDARY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
   WESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST TX...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
   THE NIGHT AS EASTERLY COMPONENT FURTHER INCREASES. MODERATELY STRONG
   MID/UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ATOP LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...PROVIDE A
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   THE PRIMARY RISK...ALTHOUGH A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ESPECIALLY
   CLOSER TOWARD THE BIG BEND AREA.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/07/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...
   
   31290426 31880314 31870192 31380115 30590154 30180189
   29970248 29410311 29420392 30100439