MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0720
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0408 AM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN KS...NRN MO...SRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 060908Z - 061115Z
   
   WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP EAST ACROSS 
   PARTS OF SRN IA AND NRN MO THROUGH EARLY TODAY. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE.
   
   SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED WITH BOWING CONVECTION ALONG
   THE LEADING EDGE OF WELL-FORMED MCS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY EARLY
   TODAY. WHILE SPEED OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOW WAS CURRENTLY
   AROUND 30-35KT...WITH A RECENT SURFACE WIND GUST TO 39KT AT
   FNB...EXTENSIVE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA HAS
   LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO UPSCALE ENHANCEMENT TO THE OVERALL SYSTEM.
   
   SSWLY DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD DOES NOT STRONGLY SUPPORT RAPID EWD
   DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM COLD POOL. HOWEVER...INTENSE SLY LLJ HAS
   ALLOWED WARM SECTOR TO EXPAND NWD ACROSS NRN MO AND SRN IA AHEAD OF
   THE INTENSIFYING CONVECTION. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A CONTINUATION
   OF INTENSE MESOSCALE ASCENT AND SHEAR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
   BOW AS IT SPREADS EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT...A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/06/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...TOP...
   
   41689449 41089214 40879175 39669191 39559298 39209429
   39349543 39879448 41249438