MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0671
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...UPR TX COAST AND WCNTRL-SWRN LA
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 219...
   
   VALID 032334Z - 040130Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 219 CONTINUES.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND VSBL SATL SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENCE ZONE ARCING FROM THE CORPUS AREA NEWD INTO THE BACKSIDE
   OF THE DEVELOPING MCS OVER THE UPR TX COAST.  HGX VWP SHOWS SLY FLOW
   BENEATH WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG
   SWRN FLANKS FOR THE MCS.  THIS IS A STRONG SIGNATURE FOR A HEAVY
   RAINFALL/BACKBUILDING TYPE OF SCENARIO.  PROLONGED RAINFALL RATES OF
   1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE HOUSTON METRO AREA
   THROUGH AT LEAST 02Z.
   
   AFOREMENTIONED PROFILE WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR INDIVIDUAL
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  THE LOW LCL
   ENVIRONMENT AND SUFFICIENT 0-1KM SRH AOA 160 M2/S2 WILL ALSO BE
   FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY WITH THE TSTMS DEVELOPING
   ALONG THE SRN/SWRN FLANK OF THE MCS FROM THE GALVESTON BAY VCNTY
   NEWD TOWARD LAKE CHARLES AND LEESVILLE LA THROUGH EARLY EVE.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
   
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