MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210...
   
   VALID 022305Z - 030030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 210
   CONTINUES.
   
   AIR MASS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX HAS RECOVERED SOMEWHAT
   IN WAKE OF EARLY DAY TSTMS.  ENELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MAINTAINED
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
   SPREADING EWD IN TANDEM WITH THE W TX UPPER LOW.  THIS HAS BEEN
   FAVORABLE FOR TSTM REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTN.
   
   VSBL SATL IMAGERY SHOWS A NW-SE ORIENTED BOUNDARY BANKED UP AGAINST
   THE MOUNTAINS IN CULBERSON...JEFF-DAVIS...PRESIDO AND BREWSTER
   COUNTIES.  MOIST ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND LATE AFTN HEATING IN WAKE OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTMS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS
   REGION/PERMIAN BASIN REGION THROUGH MID-EVENING.
   
   THE VERTICAL SHEAR WAS STRONGEST ALONG/S OF THE PECOS RVR WHERE 45
   KT H5 FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPR LOW.  BULK SHEAR DROPS
   OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AT LATITUDES FARTHER N...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
   WILL COMPENSATE AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY
   WITH STRONGEST STORMS.  FARTHER S...  SUPERCELLS WILL BE MOST
   PROMINENT IN THE SWRN TX MOUNTAINS...AND GIVEN PRESENCE OF BACKED
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW VCNTY THE FRONT...ISOLD TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE.  
   
   ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD DURING THE EVE...WITH STRONGEST STORMS
   FAVORING AREAS NEAR/S OF A PECOS-FORT STOCKTON LINE/STOCKTON PLATEAU
   REGION.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
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