MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CNTRL AND SRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 022208Z - 022315Z
   
   A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL AND SRN TX
   BY EARLY THIS EVE.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CORE OF THE UPR LOW SPINNING EWD INTO
   FAR W TX LATE THIS AFTN.  ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40-45 KTS WAS
   OBSERVED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS FEATURE AT THE DEL RIO VWP...WITH
   FAVORABLE LEFT-EXIT REGION SUPPORTING STRONG-SVR TSTMS OVER THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU.  THIS JETLET WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE EVENING
   INTO CNTRL/SRN TX.
   
   DESPITE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARMING TODAY OWING TO A CANOPY
   OF STRATOCUMULUS...AIR MASS HAS REMAINED VERY MOIST BENEATH 7-8 DEG
   C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ALOFT.  THIS WAS RESULTING IN MLCAPES TO
   2500 J/KG IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE STORMS.  18Z DRT SOUNDING
   SUGGESTED A STOUT CAP EXISTS AND CONFIRMS THE MODEL DEPICTION OF
   WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES ALONG THE LATITUDE OF ABOUT
   KDRT-KCRP.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
   STRONG-SVR TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS SCNTRL TX/HILL COUNTRY REGION
   THROUGH MID-EVENING.  
   
   GIVEN AN INCREASE IN THE NOCTURNAL SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH WLY
   FLOW ALOFT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
   PLACE...SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION.  DAMAGING
   WINDS/HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES AS WELL.
   
   ..RACY.. 05/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
   
   29010064 30869787 30479652 29549654 28589815 28110019