MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CDT TUE MAY 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL TX.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 010603Z - 010830Z
   
   THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND MOVING GENERALLY SEWD AROUND SRN
   RIM OF MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW.  LRG HAIL AND ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW OVER SERN NM...WITH DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN AND SJT AREA TO SRN HILL
   COUNTRY...GENERALLY PARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 60 NM N OF I-10.  MOST
   FAVORABLE SFC AIR MASS -- WITH DEW POINTS MID 60S F -- WILL REMAIN
   ALONG AND S OF THIS WARM FRONT...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT NWD EXCEPT
   WHERE LOCALLY/EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD AGAIN BY OUTFLOW FROM TSTMS TO
   ITS N.  NOTE THAT ADJACENT SFC STATIONS AQO AND T82 NW OF SAT ARE
   REPORTING BOGUS SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 6-7 DEG F TOO HIGH THAT MAY
   AFFECT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES IN MESOBETA SCALE INFLOW REGION.  THOSE
   ASIDE...PRIND SFC AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
   STABILIZE GRADUALLY THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING...BASED ON MODIFIED
   RUC SOUNDINGS AND ON STRENGTHENING INVERSION IMPLIED BY INCREASE IN
   REFLECTIVITY CLUTTER.  THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
   POTENTIAL FOR SVR GUSTS TO REACH SFC...ALTHOUGH BOW CIRCULATIONS AND
   REAR-FLANK DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN ANY SUPERCELLS STILL MAY CAUSE DAMAGE.
    LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-45 KT ACROSS BROAD AREA FROM
   SAT-MAF...AND WILL BE MAINTAINED SEVERAL MORE HOURS WITH SOME SWLY
   VEERING POSSIBLE BETWEEN SJT-MAF.  ASSOCIATED/ELEVATED MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION ABOVE SFC MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
   POTENTIAL...WITH MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR TO SUPPORT BOTH BOW AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ROOTED ALOFT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
   30469899 30880017 31510180 31920219 32350210 32440143
   32450044 33129982 33109883 32619799 31849710 30889748
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