MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0611
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT SUN APR 29 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW TX...RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 290559Z - 290800Z
   
   CLUSTER OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TSTMS -- PERHAPS INCLUDING SOME
   INTERMITTENT/LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLULAR MORPHOLOGY -- SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO MOVE NWD/NNWWD FROM NERN COAHUILA ACROSS RIO GRANDE.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT PORTIONS NWRN WEBB...DIMMIT...MAVERICK AND
   ZAVALA COUNTIES THROUGH 830Z.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN THREAT...WITH
   ISOLATED STG GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE.  WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BECAUSE
   OF LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL COVERAGE OF THREAT.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM NRN SERRANIAS
   DEL BURRO RANGE IN MEX...EWD ACROSS DRT AREA...THEN EWD THROUGH NRN
   FRINGES SAT/HOU AREAS.  THIS FRONT MAY DRIFT NWD...AND WILL CONTINUE
   TO MARK NRN EDGE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS.  MODIFIED
   RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG WILL PERSIST THROUGH
   ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF GRADUAL SFC DIABATIC COOLING...THIS BUOYANCY
   BEING SUPPORTED GREATLY BY UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS.  SFC THETAE
   WILL CONTINUE TO DROP MARKEDLY N OF FRONT...LEADING TO MORE ELEVATED
   UPDRAFTS AND LIKELY WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY FROM LATITUDE OF ABOUT
   DRT-HDO NWD.  ONGOING ACTIVITY IS MOVING LEFTWARD OF THAT PORTION OF
   HODOGRAPH ABOVE 2 KM...HOWEVER DRT VWP AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   CONSIDERABLE TURNING IN LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT YIELD CURVING 0-2 KM
   HODOGRAPHS...AND POSITIVE SRH EVEN FOR LEFT-MOVING STORMS. 
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING W OF MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
   AS OF 545Z...AND THIS ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY MAY AFFECT PORTIONS
   KINNEY/SRN VAL VERDE COUNTIES.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...
   
   29430103 29600066 29620026 29529991 29289977 28699970
   28259979 27989993 27990000 28140007 28190019 28260028
   28480035 28730053 28900065 29070067 29150078 29250078
   29280088 29370100