MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0563
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN AND CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 241903Z - 242030Z
   
   ...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS...
   
   LONG RADAR LOOPS REVEAL THE PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE GRAVITY
   WAVE...NOTED ON COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY DATA THIS MORNING EXITING ERN
   OKLAHOMA. THAT WAVE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER
   CNTRL MO THIS AFTN. THE AREA BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH IS ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO...WHERE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF GRAVITY
   WAVE IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTION. 
   
   THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA SUGGESTS THAT WEAK CAPPING STILL
   EXISTED...BUT THAT SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 70S COMBINED WITH INCREASING
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   SHOWS POCKETS OF CLEARING WITHIN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD...WHICH IS
   ALLOWING FOR GREATER HEATING TO OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTN. EXPECTED
   THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
   WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 04/24/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
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