MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO/SRN IL/WRN KY/NRN PORTIONS OF WRN AND
   MIDDLE TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241813Z - 241945Z
   
   WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AREAS NEAR WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY REGION FOR LIMITED TORNADO THREAT.
   
   LATEST RADAR LOOP REVEALS A SLOW INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
   THE DISCUSSION AREA...S OF WARM FRONT WHICH IS NOW LOCATED JUST N OF
   THE OH RIVER.  DAYTIME HEATING OF RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   HAS LED TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...AND THUS EXPECT A
   SLOW/CONTINUED INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER THIS REGION.
   
   MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THREAT ATTM APPEARS TO
   BE A RELATIVE LACK OF FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD KEEP
   SEVERE THREAT RELATIVELY LOW IN GENERAL.  MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF
   STORMS CAN DEVELOP NEAR/MOVE ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MORE
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY/SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT
   FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.  WHILE WW IS NOT IMMINENT...AN INCREASE IN
   STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT COULD REQUIRE TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE.
   
   ..GOSS.. 04/24/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...
   
   38019050 37648877 37648708 38008629 37358528 36608522
   35958682 36078980 36629081