MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0545
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NY/FAR NWRN PA/FAR NERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 232103Z - 232330Z
   
   LINE OF STRONG-ISOLATED SVR STORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO WAS MOVING EWD
   FROM 35-40 KTS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   LINE  AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS SOUTH OF THE LINE AS ACTIVITY MOVES
   ACROSS WRN NY/FAR NWRN PA/FAR NERN OH BETWEEN 22-01Z. RELATIVELY
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SVR
   EVENT...THUS A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SAT/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   LINE MOVING EWD AROUND 35 KTS ACROSS SERN ONTARIO JUST AHEAD OF MID
   LEVEL VORT CENTER MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN GEORGIAN BAY. RECENT SFC OBS
   WHERE THIS LINE HAS CROSSED HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN
   40-50 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS WEAKLY
   UNSTABLE /MUCAPES FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG/. DESPITE MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
   LAKESHORE/ AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50 KTS AT 0.5 KM FROM
   THE BUFFALO RADAR VWP/ INDICATE THAT SOME DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY REACH
   THE SFC WITH THIS LINE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
   BACKBUILDING OF THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY OCCUR AS INSTABILITY
   AXIS IS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF
   STORM MOTIONS WOULD TAKE THIS LINE ACROSS WRN NY BETWEEN 22-01Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   43447741 43387834 42437921 41868052 41428075 41727896
   42087767 42507725 43127685 43467696