MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0540
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT SUN APR 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL/ERN OK...NCENTRAL TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 222051Z - 222315Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SVR STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
   MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A
   WW. 
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A VERY
   SLOW MOVING DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE OK SSWWD TO
   NEAR SHAWNEE OK TO NEAR JACKSBORO TX. AHEAD OF THIS
   DRYLINE...INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASES WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 60S
   AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F...RESULTING IN 500-750 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
   ALTHOUGH SLIGHT COOLING MAY OCCUR IN THE 700 MB LAYER THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW
   OVER NEB...A WELL PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 600
   MB /PER THE 18Z LAMONT SOUNDING/ EXISTS. THIS INVERSION AND
   CONSEQUENT POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH. THUS DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
   PROFILES...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH THAT A WW
   IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 04/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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