MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 147...
   
   VALID 151840Z - 151945Z
   
   SVR POTENTIAL CONTINUES ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS WW AND WILL
   CONTINUE PAST SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION.  THEREFORE ANOTHER WW LIKELY
   WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS WRN NC...FROM SC BORDER TO OUTER
   BANKS...AND S OF ERN HALF OF NEWER WW 149.
   
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS EVIDENT FROM SW OF ECG TO NEAR OAJ AS OF
   1830Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS SOUNDS AND OUTER BANKS
   REGION THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 20Z.  FARTHER SW...MORE
   ISOLATED/DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED AHEAD OF SFC COLD
   FRONTAL SURGE -- TSTMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY BUOYANT/SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT AND WHICH MAY AFFECT PORTIONS NC JUST S OF WW 149.  SFC
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE LOWS ALONG MAIN SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE
   BETWEEN MID ATLANTIC AND WRN NC.  ONE OF THESE -- NOW ANALYZED
   BETWEEN RDU AND VA BORDER -- HAS MOVED NEWD FROM ERN PORTION NC-SC
   BORDER AS MESOLOW AND MAY EVOLVE INTO PRIMARY SYNOPTIC CYCLONE --
   TAKING THAT ROLE FROM WRN LOW WSW GSO.  ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC
   FORCING IS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS AND ENLARGED
   HODOGRAPHS BEHIND INITIAL LINE...ACROSS ERN NC.  ALTHOUGH THIS FLOW
   WILL VEER GRADUALLY AS PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT NWD OVER VA...0-1 KM SRH
   AOA 300 J/KG WILL REMAIN OVER E-CENTRAL NC FOR ANOTHER FEW
   HOURS...ALONG WITH 50-70 KT EFFECTIVE BULKS SHEAR.  THIS WILL
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING GUSTS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
   ISOLATED SVR HAIL WITH ANY ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
   
   34787960 35547826 35877717 36137575 35667549 35217554
   35137588 34707646 34607651 34677668 34617720 34227775
   33867797 33897854