MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0725 AM CDT THU APR 12 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NC...SERN VA.
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...
   
   VALID 121225Z - 121400Z
   
   SVR THREAT CONTINUES OVER WW BUT IS DIMINISHING...AND WW MAY BE
   CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 15Z EXPIRATION IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS CONTINUE.
   
   STRONGEST ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OVER ATLANTIC WATERS E OF MHX AREA AND
   S OF HSE...AS SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO.  THIS ACTIVITY 
   SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER WITH APEX OF BOW PASSING OVER -- OR VERY
   CLOSE TO -- BUOY 41025 BEFORE 13Z.  STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING
   ALSO HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FARTHER N -- OFF ERN NC AND VA. 
   WEAK/PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE LINE HAS MOVED EWD TO NEAR
   ECG...NKT...OAJ...AND SHOULD CONTINUE CROSSING REMAINDER COASTAL
   PLAIN AND SOUNDS THROUGH 15Z.  VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES W OF
   THAT LINE SHOULD CONTINUE...AS STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING EJECTS
   NEWD ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  THIS PROCESS WILL FURTHER REDUCE
   BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.  POCKET OF PRONOUNCED
   MIDLEVEL WARMING -- EVIDENT IN 12Z GSO RAOB -- ALSO MAY FURTHER
   RESTRICT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT W OF CONFLUENCE LINE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/12/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...
   
   34557726 35127710 36447625 36757591 36167573 35637544
   35247553 35027606 34587653 34687671 34657702