MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1216 PM CDT WED APR 11 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN-ERN MS INTO NRN/CENTRAL AL AND MIDDLE
   TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 111716Z - 111815Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NERN-ERN MS INTO NRN AL AND
   MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
   BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE A WW THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOW WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN MS IS
   BECOMING UNCAPPED GIVEN SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
   LOWER TO MID 70S AND WITHIN ZONE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
   COLD FRONT.  STRONG ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 100 KT WLY MID
   LEVEL JET NOW MOVING INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY NWD FROM CENTRAL MS/NRN AL ALONG/AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  VIS/IR IMAGERY INDICATED CU INCREASING
   IN VERTICAL DEPTH SWD ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SRN MS.  HOWEVER...WEAKER
   DEEP LAYER ASCENT THIS FAR S AND VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST ANY
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT.
   
   BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR PROLONGED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE ACROSS
   NERN-EAST CENTRAL MS INTO NWRN AL WHERE TSTMS WILL BE FUELED BY
   GREATER WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND EXIST ALONG SRN EXTENT OF
   STRONGER DEEP LAYER ASCENT.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH ANY THAT CAN SUSTAIN A MORE
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFT.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/11/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
   
   32088742 31918843 32428990 34418915 35818840 35928653
   34918603 32408617