MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT MON APR 02 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA AND FAR EASTERN NEB/EXTREME NORTHERN
   MO/FAR SOUTHERN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 030105Z - 030300Z
   
   INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF IA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
   NORTHERN MO/FAR EASTERN NEB/FAR SOUTHERN MN...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
   THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME. WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED
   THIS EVENING...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS IA.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT ANGLING FROM
   CENTRAL NEB...EASTWARD ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER. WITH MOISTURE
   CONTINUING TO RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
   PREVALENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SINCE LATE
   AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN IA. WHILE SOME WINDOW
   STILL EXISTS FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS/SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP EARLY
   THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IA/FAR NORTHERN MO NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS TO
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF IA. IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A SOUTH/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING TO 50
   KT WILL HELP ISENTROPICALLY LIFT PARCELS TO THE THEIR LFC
   ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHERN
   IA/FAR NORTHERN MO...MUCAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR GREATER /REF 00Z TOPEKA
   OBSERVED RAOB/ AMIDST AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS NORTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT...WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION AIDING IN LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/03/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...
   
   42799620 43549535 43679294 42789111 41789035 40579125
   40309339 40389561 41249616