MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 PM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO AND PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 301818Z - 301945Z
   
   INCREASING CONVECTION MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF HAIL/DAMAGING
   WINDS...BUT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE
   OF THIS THREAT.
   
   UPPER IMPULSE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO LIFT
   THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKEN WITHIN WEAK/
   DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF ROCKIES TROUGH.  WITH
   INHIBITION WEAKENED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...MID-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO
   1000 J/KG.  SOME OF THESE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI MAY
   ALREADY BE BASED IN MOIST...WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER.  AND...THIS
   ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH FURTHER INSOLATION
   THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY IS
   SUPPORTIVE OF A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT.  UNSATURATED PROFILES
   MAY ALSO SUPPORT A RISK FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS... PARTICULARLY AS
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON
   
   ..KERR.. 03/30/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   40909524 41359406 40729145 39958982 39078904 38068843
   37058893 36569036 36349258 36699408 38099533 39679581