MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0375
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 300944Z - 301145Z
   
   TSTM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD AND
   NWWD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SEVERE STORMS AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   ZONE OF WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS SRN TX APPEARS TO BE
   PROMOTING A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN TSTMS OVER THE LAST HOUR FROM
   PARTS OF VAL VERDE AND CROCKETT COUNTIES NWD TO NEAR THE MAF AREA.
   THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE LEADING EDGE OF LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS BEING LIFTED ACROSS REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE
   ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. TERRAIN INFLUENCES/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO
   BE PLAYING A ROLE IN STORM INITIATION...ESPECIALLY WITH PARTICULARLY
   INTENSE CELL OVER MEXICO ABOUT 50 MILES WNW LRD.
   
   INCREASINGLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE
   ROTATING NEWD THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AID ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH DAYBREAK FROM THE PECOS VALLEY EWD/SWD ACROSS SOUTH TX.
   ACTIVITY OVER THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE ROOTED ABOVE A MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE NW OF THE SURFACE FRONT. NONETHELESS...A
   COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL THIS MORNING GIVEN AN
   EXPECTED INCREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES AS THE 
   MEXICO IMPULSE TRANSLATES NEWD.
   
   STRONGER CONVECTION CURRENTLY INITIATING NW OF LRD...AND SOUTH OF A
   DRT-UVA-HDO LINE...MAY BE OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN. THIS ACTIVITY
   IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND GREATER
   INSTABILITY. BUT STORMS APPEAR FURTHER REMOVED FROM STRONGER LARGE
   SCALE FORCING TO THE WEST...AND THEREFORE MAY REMAIN MORE ISOLATED.
   RADAR SUGGESTS THAT REMOTE PARTS OF WEBB AND DIMMIT COUNTIES MAY BE
   AFFECTED BY STORM MOVING NEWD FROM MEXICO OVER THE NEXT HOUR. TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF STORM COVERAGE
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY
   EXISTS WITHIN MODESTLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/30/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...
   
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