MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 PM CDT WED MAR 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PNHDL...SOUTH PLAINS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 281822Z - 281945Z
   
   LATEST RUC SUGGESTS DESTABILIZATION IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED WITH
   INHIBITION WEAKENING EAST OF SURFACE DRY LINE...FROM THE TEXAS SOUTH
   PLAINS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS STRONGEST...ALONG 30-40 KT
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDINESS HAS SOMEWHAT
   RESTRICTED SURFACE HEATING TO THIS POINT...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATES THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-
   2OOO J/KG.  WITH FURTHER INSOLATION...THIS MAY REACH 2000-3000 J/KG
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   A WEAK IMPULSE MAY BE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC
   SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AT THE PRESENT
   TIME.  IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE...SURFACE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
   MIX EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. 
   WITH MOST SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE WELL UPSTREAM...IT IS UNCERTAIN
   WHEN/IF PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRY LINE.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF
   MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE INITIATION OF AT
   LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF DRY
   LINE...BENEATH DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
   20-21Z.
   
   IF THIS OCCURS...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM IN
   ENVIRONMENT WITH SIZABLE...CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS...BENEATH
   MODERATELY STRONG AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY HIGH LEVEL JET. 
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENSUE INTO/THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING ALONG DRY LINE...ACCOMPANIED BY RISK FOR
   VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/28/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   35820195 36430145 36260046 35220013 32910045 32070099
   32080226 33740255