MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0340
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 251950Z - 252045Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS WEST TX...
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH
   OF WEST TX ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   ZONE...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY MRF...NNEWD TO NEAR MAF...TO SE OF
   LBB.  ADDITIONALLY...LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
   ACROSS THIS REGION AS EXIT REGION OF JET MAX SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATION OF LOW LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH.  STEEP
   LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG CERTAINLY
   SUGGEST UPRIGHT BUOYANCY WILL PROVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
   ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION BEFORE STORM MERGERS AID ONE OR MORE
   LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD PROPAGATE ENEWD INTO THE
   EDWARDS PLATEAU LATER THIS EVENING.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR PERHAPS GUSTY
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 03/25/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...EPZ...
   
   30430530 31520382 32590308 33600218 33170115 31890174
   30380266 29360445