MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN CO...SRN NEB AND NWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 240404Z - 240630Z
   
   DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD EXCEED SEVERE
   LEVELS AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. CURRENTLY...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE
   SEVERE STORM THREAT DICTATES THAT A WATCH IS NOT IMMINENT BUT STORM
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.
   
   WEAK MESOSCALE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE EVOLVED ON THE LEADING
   EDGE OF DEEPER COLD POOL SPREADING NEWD ACROSS WCNTRL KS ATTM.
   MEANWHILE...WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION APPEAR TO BE INCREASING
   AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WARM FRONTAL ZONE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED
   NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA. ONGOING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MESOLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ATOP RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
   WHICH COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN KS
   OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND
   STRONGER INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING NWD/NWWD IN THE WAKE OF
   THE SMALL MCS MOVING TOWARD ERN/NERN KS ATTM. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOLOW...AND INCREASING DIFFLUENT FLOW
   ALOFT...SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER WRN KS...AND MAY
   CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD
   PROMOTE A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
   
   LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
   SEVERE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
   THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE/THREAT MAY REMAIN
   TOO LIMITED/BRIEF FOR A WATCH AND THUS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/24/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
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