MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT FRI MAR 23 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM AND TX/OK PNHDL REGION INTO PARTS OF SW KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 232058Z - 232200Z
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...BENEATH DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF
   SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW.  ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AROUND
   700 MB STILL APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY...WHICH WILL
   PROBABLY BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO
   ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  IF STORMS ARE NOT ALREADY
   SURFACE-BASED...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR THIS TO OCCUR...AS LOW-LEVEL
   THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION...REFLECTED BY 60F+ SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS...CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 
   SHEAR IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS ALREADY
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS.  AS
   ACTIVITY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ROOTED NEAR SURFACE...WITH MIXED LAYER
   CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
   INCREASE...PARTICULARLY AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
   TOWARD DARK.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/23/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   35830386 36270385 36690324 37160241 37870095 37889987
   37349917 36549935 36139991 35710140 35190265 35140350