MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1242 PM CDT THU MAR 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...SW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 221742Z - 222015Z
   
   THREAT IS INCREASING FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
   COVERAGE...AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z.
   
   SURFACE MAP SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN NM INTO
   THE TX PANHANDLE. RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN
   PLACE...EVIDENT IN 12Z MAF SOUNDING WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND PW NEAR 1.00 INCH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
   REVEALS POCKETS OF HEATING DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CIRRUS
   SHIELD...WHICH HAS A SHARP BACK EDGE NEAR ELP AS OF 1730Z. STORMS
   ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ARE
   ELEVATED IN NATURE. HOWEVER...THEY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE
   BASED ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY AS CIN ERODES WITH LITTLE HEATING
   NEEDED. THIS WILL INCREASE EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY
   AVAILABLE WITHIN STORM INFLOW LAYER...AND IN TURN ALLOW STORMS TO
   BECOME SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL. SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1KM IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG. HOWEVER...RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE FAVORED AND LOW
   LEVEL VORTICITY WILL BE ENHANCED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
   FROM ROW TO AMA. THUS...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
   32490564 33140557 33530478 34420339 34580232 34340161
   33140179 32150202 31360212 30090323 30200410 31160479
   31560517