MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CDT THU MAR 22 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/NERN IL...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN IND AND SRN
   LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 220943Z - 221045Z
   
   TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS ERN/NERN IL
   INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN IND AND SRN LOWER MI...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   WW IS POSSIBLE.
   
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND A
   SECOND MCS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL AND ERN MO.  STRONG SWLY
   LLJ CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM OF THESE CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEXES...AIDING IN DESTABILIZATION.  REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A
   RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY/INTENSITY FROM CENTRAL IL TO SRN
   LAKE MI.  GIVEN THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS COMBINED WITH
   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AFFECTING THIS REGION BY SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH TRACKING EWD THROUGH WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...TSTMS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY.  MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SOME
   STORM ORGANIZATION...WHILE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO
   PROMOTE LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..PETERS.. 03/22/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   39108848 40868837 41708753 43048606 43598456 43578367
   42618332 40758472 39398578