MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT WED MAR 21 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 212054Z - 212300Z
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH A
   THREAT OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND AND/OR HAIL.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A GENERALLY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
   REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS ERN NM. INITIAL WLY SURGE
   HAS PASSED BY TO THE N DRYING THE NRN TX PANHANDLE BUT AREA
   PROFILERS SHOW BACKING FLOW ALOFT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NM.
   BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BRINGING RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 40S TO LOWER 50S INTO LBB AREA. 20Z SOUNDING OUT OF REESE SHOWS
   STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CIN GIVEN SFC TEMP IN LOWER
   80S. TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATE INCREASING CU FIELDS ALONG
   THE NM BORDER. THIS IS THE GENERAL VICINITY MESOSCALE MODELS ATTEMPT
   TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION. MDT TO STRONG FLOW EXISTS IN THE UPPER
   LEVELS BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY WEAK. THEREFORE...GIVEN
   CONTINUED HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS...MAINLY MULTICELLULAR IN
   NATURE...TO DEVELOP WITH THREAT OF GUSTY OUTFLOW AND PERHAPS SOME
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 03/21/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   33430010 32020302 33290313 33950313 34650274 35040166
   35160100 35260011 34700009