MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO / NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 191900Z - 192100Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   W-CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL KS TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ERN
   TX PNHDL AND THEN INTO SERN NM.  ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN
   DEEPENING/INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN KS
   INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN OK...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO ZONE OF
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
   THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL OK.  12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND SHORT TERM RUC
   PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED FOR
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS OWING TO PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/
   IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  THEREFORE...THIS INTENSIFYING
   CONVECTION IS LIKELY BASED ABOVE THIS EML...IN THE 550-500 MB 
   LAYER.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT E OF
   PRIMARY EML PLUME INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  DESPITE
   RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
   LAYER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST COOL
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST SOME THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.  ISOLATED...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY ALSO
   OCCUR WITH ANY MORE SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT CAN UTILIZE THE
   POTENTIAL NEGATIVE BUOYANCY CONTAINED IN THE EML.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/19/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
   
   37219637 37899552 38229453 38429331 38059255 36759260
   35729324 35159398 35149470 35549572 36389637