MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0746 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WV PANHANDLE/WRN MD/PA/SERN NY/NJ/LONG ISLAND
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 161246Z - 161645Z
   
   ...LATE WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
   AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS MORNING. A NARROW AXIS OF MIXED
   PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND FROM WRN MD NEWD TO NJ/NYC WITH HEAVY SNOW
   DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS PA/SRN NY...
   
   EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXITING SE
   GA...WITH A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SE TOWARD THE OH
   VALLEY. SFC LOW...NOW NEAR ASHEVILLE NC...IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN THIS
   AFTN AS IT TRACKS NE THROUGH ERN NC. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
   ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROUGH. VERY HEAVY MESOSCALE BANDS OF
   SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS PA LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
   AFTN...WITH SNOW RATES INCREASING TO 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER...SNOW RATES ARE JUST BEGINNING TO INCREASE
   ACROSS SCNTRL PA. DRY AIR /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
   TEENS/ ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT SNOW FROM
   REACHING THE GROUND.
   
   A NARROW BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FROM AROUND
   HAGERSTOWN MD TO NORTH OF PHILADELPHIA TO LONG ISLAND. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS FROM THE 06Z NAM SUGGEST PCPN WILL MAINLY BE RAIN FROM THE
   BALTIMORE/DC AREA NEWD TO PHILADELPHIA WHILE SLEET OR SNOW IS
   INDICATED FOR THE NEW YORK CITY METRO...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM IAD/OKX.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 03/16/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   39597716 38677820 38787925 39597964 40407963 41897845
   41937563 41227309 40667313 39907398