MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1018 AM CDT SUN MAR 11 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 111518Z - 111645Z
   
   A SHORT LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST
   OF LUBBOCK TX. THE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE LINE MAY
   CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STORMS
   MOVING EWD AND DEVELOPING SWD ACROSS MCD AREA. ALTHOUGH STILL
   UNCERTAIN...A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY
   IF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY EXPANDS IN COVERAGE.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER FAR WEST TX WITH A HARD TO
   IDENTIFY COLD FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE LOW TO WEST OF LUBBOCK.
   THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY LOCATED NEAR THE
   BOUNDARY WHERE A THERMAL GRADIENT IS PRESENT. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY
   EXISTS FROM SE NM SEWD TO NEAR DEL RIO TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
   CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 500 TO 750 J/KG. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES LATE
   THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD
   ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE THREAT SHOULD
   EVENTUALLY EXPAND INTO THE AREA AROUND SAN ANGELO THIS AFTERNOON.
   STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR
   SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS CONTAINING BOW
   ECHOES AND SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH HAIL POTENTIAL. ISOLATED WIND
   DAMAGE ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/11/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
   
   30900017 30680120 32110261 33080257 33610177 33270092
   31759975