MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1136 AM CST FRI MAR 09 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NE TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 091736Z - 091900Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN OK AND NE TX. AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN
   INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
   ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR. A SEVERE WEATHER
   WATCH WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   FASTEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD
    ACROSS WCNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX. A THERMAL AXIS EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE NEAR 70 F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
   THERMAL AXIS SHOW CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPS AROUND 72 F. THIS WILL
   LIKELY BE REACHED BY 20Z SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
   THE THERMAL AXIS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INITIATION. THE FIRST IS
   NEAR AND JUST NE OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY OK AREA AND THE SECOND IS NW
   OF FORT WORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER. IF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE IN
   EITHER AREA THIS AFTERNOON...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR
   PROFILES SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. THE
   CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME SFC-BASED WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
   INCREASING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 03/09/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
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