MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0911 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SC / ERN GA / NERN FL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 48...
   
   VALID 020311Z - 020445Z
   
   SEVERE STORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS WW
   AREA BETWEEN 04-06Z.  CONTINUE WW.
   
   THUS FAR...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LARGELY NON-EXISTENT ACROSS WW
   48 DESPITE SEEMINGLY UNCAPPED AIR MASS PER 00Z JAX SOUNDING. 
   MODIFYING THIS SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT
   AIR MASS REMAINS LARGELY UNCAPPED WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
   RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE TENDENCIES INDICATE THAT
   THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE
   RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PAUCITY IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE
   EXCEPTION IS OVER NRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA...NAMELY N OF THE SAVANNAH
   RIVER WHERE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NWD.
   
   EXTRAPOLATION OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS GA AND LATEST SHORT TERM
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
   04-06Z AS: 1) STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W...AND/OR 2) NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITHIN
   FREE WARM SECTOR.  SUPERCELL AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
   HIGH WITH ANY STORMS MOVING INTO WW AREA GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WIND
   FIELDS IN PLACE.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
   
   33728000 32967874 31568023 30938084 29798069 28287981
   28148218 30068335 31638335 32208243 33068210