MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0242
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47...
   
   VALID 011947Z - 012115Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 47 CONTINUES ACROSS
   NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER MI THROUGH 01Z. PRIMARY
   HAZARD REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL AS STORMS SPREAD ACROSS
   NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALSO
   POSSIBLE.
   
   COINCIDENT WITH THE ARCING LOW LEVEL FRONTAL OCCLUSION...LOW TOPPED
   STORMS CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL
   IL...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ROCKFORD TO BLOOMINGTON AS OF 1930Z.
   IN SPITE OF COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
   TSTM WATCH 47 AS OF 1930Z /40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHERN
   INDIANA/...MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ABOVE THE MORE-STABLE
   SURFACE LAYER...WITH ELEVATED MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG SUFFICIENT FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. GIVEN THE VERY
   STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS PER REGIONAL PROFILERS/WSR-88D
   VWPS...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO A DISTINCT
   POSSIBILITY ALONG THE ARCING CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTH
   EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST IL INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 03/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   42038872 42258824 42428723 42388594 42128536 41588503
   40838521 40648541 40508623 40528715 40538859 40858904
   41458904