MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0228
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...FL PNHDL...SWRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 010857Z - 011100Z
   
   ROBUST ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED ACROSS SRN AL
   AND THE FL PNHDL ON THE LEADING EDGE OF GULF MOISTURE SURGE. A
   MAJORITY OF SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION
   IS LIKELY TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING AND A WATCH IS LIKELY BEFORE 12Z.
   
   RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ESCAMBIA COUNTY AL AND WALTON COUNTY FL
   APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ON THE
   NOSE OF SUB-TROPICAL JET. THE UPPER FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
   AND COINCIDE WITH A SHARP LOW LEVEL THETA-E GRADIENT EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MORNING. LIFT ACROSS
   THE MOIST/WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL DEEP MOIST
   CONVECTION...INITIALLY SOMEWHAT DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE LAYER AND
   POSING SOME CHANCE OF HAIL. HOWEVER... GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG
   LARGE SCALE FORCING/UPPER DIFFLUENCE SPREADING EAST FROM THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY AND ACROSS THE RETURNING MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY
   TODAY...WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. WHILE CURRENT
   ACTIVITY DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT DECOUPLED FROM BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS...ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING/MOISTENING WILL BE NECESSARY TO
   SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AND RESULTANT
   TORNADO POTENTIAL. A WATCH ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED
   BEFORE 12Z.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 03/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
   
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