MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0948 PM CST WED FEB 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 38...
   
   VALID 010348Z - 010515Z
   
   GREATEST TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL
   PORTIONS OF WW AREA THROUGH 05Z.  CONTINUE WW.
   
   AS OF 0330Z...EAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
   OVER JOHNSON/NRN HENRY COUNTIES AND CASS COUNTY IN W-CNTRL MO.  THE
   ERN SUPERCELL HAS PRODUCED MULTIPLE TORNADOES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
   HOURS WHILE MOVING GENERALLY 245/35 KT.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
   3-HR CHANGE FIELDS INDICATE THAT LITTLE AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS
   OCCURRING FROM SZL TO COU EWD...POSSIBLY OWING TO LOW-LEVEL
   TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING MORE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY. 
   THEREFORE...EXPECT THE TORNADO THREAT TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS ERN
   SUPERCELL SHIFTS TO THE E OF PETTIS COUNTY INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE
   STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS.
   
   RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WRN SUPERCELL OVER CASS COUNTY IS
   MOVING ALONG IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM
   JOHNSON COUNTY SUPERCELL.  MOREOVER...THIS STORM IS MORE FIRMLY
   ROOTED IN PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING FROM JUST S OF MKC SWWD
   INTO NERN OK WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG.  THEREFORE...EXPECT
   THIS STORM TO BECOME THE PRIMARY TORNADIC THREAT THROUGH 05Z AS IT
   MOVES ALONG OR SLIGHTLY TO THE N OF THE ERN SUPERCELL TRACK.
   
   ..MEAD.. 03/01/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37379488 37619539 38359545 38969532 39229399 39269297
   39109229 38599218 38139259 37699304 37399370