MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0215
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0958 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 271558Z - 271730Z
   
   WW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL.
   
   ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT AS THIS
   BOUNDARY MOVES SWD INTO A DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL TO
   SRN FL.  TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG LAKE/SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE PENINSULA...
   GIVEN WLY WINDS.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   AT 1550Z...SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL FL FROM 35 N MLB
   TO TAMPA.  SHORT TERM MODELS/12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST TSTM
   COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE BY 18Z AS ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
   WEAKENS CINH SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT.  OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED THIS TREND IS OCCURRING AS
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.  ASCENT
   AHEAD OF SERN GULF MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD REACH SWRN FL BY
   18Z...AIDING IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS SRN FL
   THIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/27/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
   
   28428071 28408045 26917994 25448007 25078059 25538075
   26198109 26758144 27328177 27598200 27828210 28238144