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Mesoscale Discussion 206 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0206
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST SUN FEB 25 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/E-CNTRL MN...FAR NERN IA...MUCH OF WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 250648Z - 251045Z
HEAVY SNOW AXIS ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA/SRN WI WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
N/NEWD OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL REMAIN LIKELY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES IN EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED ELY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. OVERALL SNOWFALL INTENSITY SHOULD DIMINISH
ACROSS ERN MN...NERN IA AND WRN WI...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z.
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY EXPANDING NWD OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. OCCASIONAL CG LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE WITHIN THIS
AREA...SUGGESTIVE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY/SLANTWISE
CONVECTION. AS THE POTENT CYCLONE NEAR LWD UNDERGOES FURTHER
OCCLUSION OVERNIGHT...MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH
MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL AID IN DIMINISHING SNOWFALL
RATES ACROSS NERN IA/ERN MN. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
ISENTROPIC LIFT OUGHT TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FURTHER
E OVER CNTRL/ERN WI AS A VERY STRONG LLJ /70+ KT PER WIND PROFILERS/
LIFTS SLOWLY NWD OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z...THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE CENTERED FROM AROUND GRB TO AUW TO 60 S ASX.
..GRAMS.. 02/25/2007
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...
46229186 45848970 45558875 44958728 43178784 42858835
42898938 42999057 43229186 43769277 44399333 45319380
45969322
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