MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0193
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 241540Z - 241745Z
   
   CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY IS INCREASING NEAR DEEPENING
   SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  EAST OF SURFACE DRY LINE...
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC DRYING HAS OVERSPREAD A RELATIVELY MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER 50S DEW POINTS.  MID-LEVEL COOLING APPEARS
   LIKELY TO COMMENCE SHORTLY IN EXIT REGION OF INTENSE 100-120 KT 500
   MB JET STREAK.  AND...WITH AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE HEATING...RUC/NAMKF
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR MIXED LAYER
   CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG AS EARLY AS 18Z.  AS THIS
   DEVELOPS...INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY.  DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK IN AREA OF CONCERN... AMBIENT
   VERTICAL VORTICITY IS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO SUPPORT RISK OF
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ..KERR.. 02/24/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   
   39029960 39629937 39659804 39469720 38829637 37899591
   37399605 37219695 37899808 38219896