MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0169
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0634 AM CST WED FEB 14 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...NJ...MA...CT...RI...VT...NH...ME
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 
   
   VALID 141234Z - 141700Z
   
   SNOW RATES OF LOCALLY UP TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
   THE MORNING FROM PARTS OF NERN PA THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND MUCH OF NEW
   ENGLAND. A MIXTURE OF MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS EXPECTED
   FROM PARTS OF ERN PA THROUGH NRN NJ...SERN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 
   
   
   AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL CONTINUE NEWD
   THROUGH THE NERN STATES TODAY. LEADING VORT MAX EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
   IMAGERY IS LIFTING NE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ACCOMPANIED BY A
   DEEP SURFACE LOW. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES NWD WITH
   ACCOMPANYING STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCING INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN A PRONOUNCED
   850-700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM PA...NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE 80+ KT
   SLY LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGING ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE
   TO STRONG AND DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM PARTS OF NY INTO NEW
   ENGLAND. IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE INSTABILITY IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME
   CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRECIPITATION.
   
   MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW FROM NERN PA
   THROUGH UPSTATE NY INTO CNTRL AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH RATES LOCALLY
   UP TO 2+ INCHES PER HOUR. FARTHER S FROM NJ THROUGH SERN NY...CT AND
   RI...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN
   AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FALLING AS SNOW OVER PARTS OF
   MA...SRN NH INTO SRN ME SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
   AS 850 MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW
   LEVEL JET. THE ZONE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BECOME
   INCREASINGLY NARROW INTO THE MORNING AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
   TIGHTENS. A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR LATER THIS
   MORNING OR BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF SERN NY THROUGH CT...RI
   AND SRN MA.
   
   ..DIAL.. 02/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   40697327 39867545 40937673 43417608 45037182 45407064
   45976921 45426757 44616729 43257057 41667060