MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0159
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0620 PM CST TUE FEB 13 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME NRN FL...COASTAL SERN GA...
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23...
   
   VALID 140020Z - 140115Z
   
   PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD...OFFSHORE GA
   COASTAL ISLANDS...WITH TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD ACROSS
   OKEFENOKEE SWAMP AREA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN FL.  SVR THREAT
   OVERALL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING FOR FL PORTION WW...AND IF CURRENT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...REMAINDER WW MAY BE CLEARED LOCALLY
   BEFORE SCHEDULED 2Z EXPIRATION.  WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NRN
   FL ARE MOVING THROUGH ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE...WEAK DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SPEED
   SHEAR...WEAKENING BUOYANCY AND STRENGTHENING SBCINH.  ALTHOUGH THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP INTO TSTMS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE...NET
   ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS INDICATE MRGL HAIL AND STG GUST THREAT AT BEST
   WITH MOST VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT.  AIR MASS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   SHOULD REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH
   REMAINDER WW PERIOD...AND CAN BE CLEARED FROM WW.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 02/14/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...
   
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