MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0133
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL KS...FAR ECENTRAL CO AND SRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 121845Z - 130045Z
   
   A MIX OF MOD/HVY SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP EWD
   ACROSS SRN NEB...NRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS.
   HRLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY
   TOWARDS 00Z.
   
   SFC OBS OVER MUCH OF WRN/NRN NEB AND WRN IA INDICATE MODEST COLD
   ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING AS TEMPERATURES/DEWPTS HAVE FALLEN 1-2 DEG
   F/2 HRS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY
   FRONTAL SURGE COMMENCING. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC FREEZING
   LINE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...EXTENDING FROM WCENTRAL KS /30 N OF
   GCK/ ENEWD INTO NCENTRAL KS /20 NW CNK/ THEN INTO SERN NEB /30 W
   LNK/. A WELL DEFINED BAND OF MOD SNOW AND SLEET...SUPPORTED BY
   INCREASING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION /NOTED ON REGIONAL VWP AND
   PROFILERS/ AND CONSEQUENT ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS...WAS MOVING SWD
   ACROSS SWRN NEB AND ECENTRAL CO. MEANWHILE...A SRN STREAM UPPER
   TROUGH DEFORMATION ZONE WAS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL KS
   IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL VORT CENTER LOCATED OVER SWRN
   KS AND MODEST LOW LEVEL WAA. AS THESE TWO SEPARATE FORCING
   MECHANISMS COMBINE OVER NRN/WRN KS AND SRN NEB IN THE NEXT 6
   HRS...EXPECT AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER
   THE AREA. PTYPES INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND
   SNOW ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE SFC FREEZING LINE FROM PORTIONS OF
   WCENTRAL KS ENEWD INTO SERN NEB...AS LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS
   TO INTENSIFY AND WHERE THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER INITIALLY EXISTS.
   HOWEVER GIVEN THE DEPTH AND STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL MOTION
   FIELDS...A TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW /HVY AT TIMES WITH 1 INCH/HR
   RATES / IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 21-00Z. WITH INCREASING PRECIP
   RATES/COLD ADVECTION THE SNOW/RAIN LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SEWD
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN KS AND SERN NEB...EXTENDING FROM NEAR
   GCK TO SLN TO FNB BY 00Z.
   
   ..CROSBIE.. 02/12/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
   
   39659625 38889806 38579921 38330065 38160138 38450207
   39000250 39680255 40490132 40879983 40989637 40319590