MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0109
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0921 AM CST FRI FEB 02 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 021521Z - 021615Z
   
   NEAR-TERM WIND DAMAGE OR BRIEF TORNADO THREAT STILL EXISTS ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL FL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS WOULD
   INDICATE THAT THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE DIMINISHING.
   
   MOST CONVECTION ALONG PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FROM 35 NW FMY TO 15
   NNW VRB HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS BASED ON WARMING
   IR CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...DIMINISHED CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY...AND
   VIL/REFLECTIVITY TRENDS. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY/COLD POOL
   CONTINUES TO OCCASIONALLY PROMOTE A COUPLE OF LONGER-LIVED ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL FL
   THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON GIVEN WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF
   70-80KT. LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HOWEVER SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST OF
   THE PENINSULA. OF GREATER UNCERTAINLY IS DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE
   ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE DECAYING SQUALL
   LINE. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REGION MAY ALLOW FOR
   STRENGTHENING BAROCLINITY IN A NARROW WSW-ENE CORRIDOR NORTH OF LAKE
   OKEECHOBEE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...DEEPER FRONTAL
   CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
   WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS COULD REINTENSIFY IN THE
   AREA...LATEST TRENDS AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT
   OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 02/02/2007
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
   
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